Friday, 24 July 2015
Wednesday, 22 July 2015
The Euro is at the bottom of its normal range. It seems to be undervalued relative to the US Dollar and should rise from here.
However, the expectation that US interest rates are to increase while ZIRP and QE continue to apply in the Eurozone puts pressure on the Euro to sink rather than rise.
The fact that US interest rate rise is not now expected until December probably indicates that the trend of EUR/USD will be hesitantly upwards for the moment.
Friday, 17 July 2015
Wednesday, 15 July 2015
Monday, 13 July 2015
Quite a surge in share prices this weekend (Thursday 9 Jul to today, Monday 13), giving mixed signals.
My guess is that the present upswing ends right where it is at now. This peak is unlikely to exceed the last peak on 18 Jun, but meet resistance at either the curved lines or straight Resistance Line R1.
Click image to enlarge.
Swinging down at the moment, the breaking news from Brussels of an Agreement between EU leaders on Greece, will see this downswing aborted and the Euro zoom upwards.
The purple triangle on the chart tentatively shows the shape of the emerging upwards channel.
The 30-day MA (720 hour) begins to turn upwards.
The US Dollar is certainly too expensive as far as trade is concerned, and the ultimate target of the upswing will be c. $1.50, by September, perhaps.
Friday, 10 July 2015
Wednesday, 8 July 2015
As Greece works towards an accommodation with Europe, the effect of the crisis on EUR/USD is lessening. The bottom is taking on a parabola shape, as is the top.
Will the EUR/USD stabilise at a value within the flattened bottom of the parabola, or will it start to rise? This depends on the market's belief in an American interest rate rise.
Recent FED statements tend to indicate postponement and minimisation. If this is what is believed, we should see a rise in the Euro when the present instance of the Greek affair is resolved - until an interest rate hike is seen to be imminent again.
Tuesday, 7 July 2015
Perhaps the Euro has fallen far enough against the US Dollar.
Leaving out the Down-spike of 26 June (Euro sell-off on Asian markets), the Support Line S1 is tending to converge with Resistance Line R1.
The Parabolic S line may be a better indicator of the Support Level.
The price, moreover, has moved far enough away from the Moving Average to warrant a move back.
Thursday, 2 July 2015
The acceleration in the Euro's downtrend against the US Dollar is indicated by Resistance Line R1.
I attempt to project the Moving Average (30 Day) forward (paler green line).
The price will stay below the MA for the present.
Our target is $1.06 by mid August.
Next week's upswing, when it is clear that Greece is remaining in the Euro-zone, may cause a breach of line R1, but the downtrend, fuelled by expectation of American interest rising, will continue.