Monday, 30 November 2015
The curve I drew in my last Euro post holds. The Euro decline appears to be bottoming out. On Wed 3 Dec 15 both the Fed and the ECB will show their hands. Fed may emphasise the gradual nature of coming rate increases and ECB may lighten up on its Quantitative Easing program. Many punters, however, still expect parity before year end, pressing EUR/USD down. Perhaps 1.00 is the real bottom, after a short recovery this week. I wait and watch.
Thursday, 26 November 2015
Having risen for 6 months from Mar, the Euro took a drop in October (when I went on holiday and) on news that US interest rates are to rise before year end, while Europe would continue its low rate policy. News that Great Britain is contemplating Euricide probably had no effect, since Sterling continues strong, Brexit is a long way off, and would be slow and negotiated in great detail.
I would guess that the October down-trend is now bottoming out, but the re-emergence of its uptrend will be slow.