Thursday, 17 December 2015
The US Dollar is over-priced, but interest rate disparity continues to press the Euro downwards.
There should be a EUKR/USD spring-back after yesterday's down-spike, but since the over-all motion is back towards my projected long-term Support Line (the green dotted line), this spring-back will be weak.
Whether it follows the gradual fall of the curved line or plunges down, I still project the dotted green line as the best guess of the slope of the Euro's emerging uptrend.
Wednesday, 16 December 2015
Yesterday's upswing has aborted this morning (16 Dec 2015) in antiipation of Yellen's announcement later today of an American interest hike. Expect a down-spike today.
Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Blue Support Line S, referred to in my last post, has not held. The dotted green line is a guess as to the slope of the anticipated uptrend. The actual support level could be established at a greater or lesser slope. Reaching the green line is more likely to be gradual than sudden, and hemmed between the curves.
Sunday, 13 December 2015
Wednesday, 9 December 2015
A nice bonus to those of us who took a long bet on the Euro is its new spike today, so long as we exit in time, of course.
Every spike has an apex followed by a down-slope. As to where exactly the apex is, your guess is as good as mine. Previous examples indicate the downturn will be sudden and sharp.
DOW INDUSTRIALS began to trend downwards in Apr 2014, as expectation of an increase in FED interest rates began to take hold. The market rallied in Aug, with good performance figures and postponement of rate increases to year end. Year-end is nigh and the down-trend resumes. I have drawn a curve to indicate the probable Resistance level in the coming months, and predicting a level of 16,000 by mid Jul 2016.
Tuesday, 8 December 2015
The Euro flattened out this morning, indicating it will not fall any further from last Thursday's spike. I show the possible slope of the coming uptrend by a green dotted (Support) line, and an indication of how the price may move by a green curved arrow.
Monday, 7 December 2015
Having spiked on Thursday last, with news that the ECB will be less aggressive than expected in its Quantitative Easing program, the Euro now comes down from the spike. If an uptrend is emerging, as I epect, then it will meet support at or before the green line and, I guess, will not fall as far as the brown line, which I drew in a previous post to show the bottom that the graph was forming.
Thursday, 3 December 2015
The jump in value of EUR/USD today is, surely, a spike. There is a definite break-out from the recent downtrend and this spike marks the beginning of the new uptrend. However, the slope of the uptrend is more likely to be that marked by the green trend-line I have drawn.
Wednesday, 2 December 2015
EIRL is an Exchange Traded Fund tracking the top 99% of Irish shares. The Irish economy grew by around 6% in 2015. Its projected growth for 2014 is around 4%. This is based on an expectation that growth will slow as the economy approaches its capacity. At the end of 2015, however, it is apparent that many Irish workers who emigrated during the recent recession are returning home, boosting that capacity. As the Irish construction industry takes off again, tax figures prove surprisingly buoyant, Europe and America continue to improve, and both the Euro and Energy prices stay relatively low, 4% is looking very conservative.
The chart shows EIRL compared to Dow Industrials. A dip late in 2014, following excessive exuberance in 2013, means that Ireland is good value now, and should beat the Dow in the coming months..
Tuesday, 1 December 2015
The above chart shows that the USA economy performed marginally better than the Euro Zone during the first three quarters of 2015 (2.1% GDP growth as against 1.6%)
However, the Euro fell a total of 25% against the US dollar between Apr 2014 and Dec 2015.
Euro Zone policy favours continuation of low interest rates and Quantitative Easing, while USA contemplates raising interest rates and paying off QE debt in 2016. These differences in policy do not justify the continuance of the low value of the Euro.
I believe the EUR/USD is at or around the bottom of its down-slide and will commence an upward trend soon.
I show my prediction for the Euro in the following chart: EUR/USD to reach $1.2 by next July and $1.25 by end of 2016.