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Wednesday, 30 March 2016

EUR/USD assaults Wall of Resistance

In my last post, I drew attention to a Wall of Resistance that has yet to be breached by the Euro  in its attempt to rise in value versus the US Dollar . It is now heading towards the Wall once more. Will it breach the Wall? Probably not in this assault; It will, I think, swing down as soon as it touches the wall, to launch a stronger assault next time.

Tuesday, 22 March 2016

EUR/USD Quandary

This time last year, many punters were expecting the Euro  to keep falling until it reached parity with the US Dollar. Then on the Ides of March 2015 the trend reversed. Since then EUR/USD  has met a wall of resistance at $1.146. Now on a downswing, we wait to see if its next rebound (from around $1.10) will take it crashing through this wall.

DOW to down-swing now

I expect a downswing now.Question is: where will this downswing bottom? If at the purple Support Line, we are now in an uptrend. Otherwise, the downtrend continues, and why not?

Friday, 18 March 2016


In January, I drew the dotted-green "Projected Upslope 2016," based on the long-term pattern. The Euro  has trended upwards against the US Dollar  since then, keeping just clear of the projected upslope. The Support Zone (green triangle) was breached, indicating a modification of the Channel: the purple box. Taking this as a guide, I would say that the graph is back in the Resistance Zone now, ready for a downswing soon.

DOW appears to pull out of downtrend, perhaps temporarily

Click to enlarge.

Paradoxically, it is bad economic news that caused the markets to rebound, and, apparently, right out of the downtrend. Poor figures led to the FED announcing that the interest rate hikes will be slowed for the rest of the year, and this led to the rise in share prices as money headed back to shares rather than bonds. We may, however, now be at a peak, from which prices will drop again. I will watch and see which of the purple trend lines give way: the Resistance Line to indicate a reversal of the downtrend, or the Support Line to indicate its continuance.