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Wednesday, 5 July 2017

Nasdaq and Dow 7 year cycles

If the markets move in seven year cycles, then there are two ways of looking at the present manifestation.

First, the Bubble of 2014 was not sufficiently burst, and a collapse is imminent.

Second, there was a sufficient correction in 2014, and we will continue in a Bull Market until 2021.

It is likely that world-wide policies of Quantitative Easing and Low Central Bank Interest Rates, as well as political events, kept cash liquid and the markets unnaturally buoyant and that the Bubble of 2014, unnaturally extended, is about to burst now.

Tuesday, 4 July 2017

NASDAQ to tumble now

February 2017, I made a premature prediction of a tumble in share prices (Line A). It looks like the tumble is about to happen at last (Line B) . We are probably seeing the beginning of a Bear Market to take us into 2018.

Monday, 3 July 2017

Motor Industry: From here it's Down, Down, Down

Motor Cars are obsolescent technology. They promised transport to any destination at any time of day or night. The present reality is gridlock, destinations inaccessible, unsustainable road building, air pollution. E-cars are not the answer, but a new transport technology of capsules travelling in tubes, described at The Motor Industry will go into severe decline until it embraces this new technology.

Tuesday, 18 April 2017

CRH to keep falling

With a P/E that is still over 21, even though it may rally from its present low, it looks inevitable that CRH, like American shares in general, will continue to fall for a considerable time.

A substantial rise in earnings is necessary to maintain current price levels.

European shares trade at a P/E of around 14 and American shares must correct to similar levels. I am neutral for the moment, as there may be an upswing from the current level before continuing the downtrend.

Wednesday, 5 April 2017

Anticipated downswing begins

Bouncing off Resistance Line R today seems to indicate a downswing. I guess we will see a movement somewhat along the track described by the green arrow. Looking back next month, we will say that the downtrend began on the 1st of March.

Thursday, 30 March 2017

S&P: watch and see

Pulling out of its recent down-swing, we watch to see if the index will be constrained by our speculative Resistance Line (purple), or if it will crash through this line to resume the up-trend. The up-trend has already proceeded beyond reason, and I won't be taking a long position. Should it bounce off the purple line, however, I am ready to resume a short.

(Published by me two days ago on Trading View).

Tuesday, 28 March 2017

S&P etc., Down-channel emerging

I think the down-channel of the SVP is emerging, and I have replaced my previous "Indicative Resistance Line" (green) with my new "Emerging Resistance Line" (blue). Time, then, not for exiting the short, but for strengthening it!

Same goes for the other American indexes. European and emerging indexes may suffer a little as well, but are not (as) over-priced as the American.

Thursday, 23 March 2017

S&P, DOW, NASDAQ: Monitoring the Downswing

S&P 500 and DOW 100 reached a peak on 1 Mar 2017, ending a charge that commenced last November.

The trend-line, "Long-term down-slope," indicates the possible top of the down-slope of the potentially-emerging Bear Market. If so, there will be upswings and downswings within this down-trend.

The "Indicative Resistance LIne" indicates a possible marker (Resistance Line) by which the end of the current down-swing can be guessed. In other words, if this line is breached in the near future (by SVP and/or DIA), I will judge that the present down-swing is over.

Nasdaq rises and falls farther than the other two. It will be interesting to see if it will now take a real plunge.

Tuesday, 21 March 2017

DOW and NASDAQ to follow S&P down

The Dow, (here echoed in the DIA  ETF on the DOW 100, shown green), quickly followed the S&P, (here echoed in the SPV ETF on the S&P 500, shown blue), downwards, and then the NASDAQ (here echoed in the QQQ  ETF on the NASDAQ 100, shown blue), joined in the dip.

It is too soon to say if this is the beginning of a downtrend, (or just a temporary blip), but why not, since the indexes are overvalued?

Thursday, 16 March 2017

Short on the S&P ETF, SPV

I am betting that the Social & Poor index will take a bit of a tumble. While this ETF, which shadows the S&P index, will probably sink over the next three years right down to $160, my initial bet is to the 5-year Support Line, exiting the bet at $224.

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

CRH: time to sell

Having fallen a little over the last 5 days, should we expect CRH to recover?

Not at all!

With a P/E of c. 27, the stock is over-priced. Even with a continuation of profit growth at almost 8%, a significant fall in price must be anticipated.

I would say: sell now and buy later after the price tumbles to around £22 ( LSE price).

Monday, 30 January 2017

The Trump Crash (S&P 500)

S&P 500  to crash from 2277 to 1600, or even 1300?

It may seem unbelievable, but this would be a drop in P/E from the excessively high level of 25.5 down to its median level of 14.65.

Trump's economic policy, negative on trade, is likely to see a contraction in GDP rather than a rise.

Tomorrow is the first of February, so we can expect to see prices falling now that we are out of January.

Friday, 27 January 2017

Ali Baba uptrend defined

The pink trend lines are my original depiction of the uptrend.

The green arrow shows my original prediction of an upswing.

The pink oval area shows how the graph dropped further than I envisaged, with the consequent redrawing of the trend lines (blue) and the blue arrow showing my revised prediction of the upswing.

The graph bounced off my blue Resistance Line and is fairly likely to swing down and up following the red arrow.

The trend is upwards anyway. There is a possibility that the graph will not go all the way down to the blue Support Line, but resume the original steeper upslope. Hesitant for the moment, my long-term view is long.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

DOW and American Indexes to plunge

The chart shows the Dow Industrial Index to be at a peak.

Wall Street Journal gives the P/E of Dow Industrials (Current price over earnings for 2016) at 21.44. Nasdaq and S&P are even more extended, at 25, and Dow Utility at 28.

Meanwhile DAX (German Index) is around 18.

Pressure will now be on the American indexes to plunge towards a P/E of 18 (but based on estimated earnings for 2017). Expectations of a sudden massive surge in American GDP/ return on shares, as a result of Trump economics, are fantasy. There will be a plunge towards $13,000 for Dow Industrial Index.